Some say that as we will have to act eventually, why not do so immediately? Others say this is not a binary situation: it’s not all or nothing, there is an agile middle way and Australia is well embarked upon it. People in positions of authority, such as Victoria’s premier, Daniel Andrews, think it is inevitable that eventually schools will close for a period and the workforces of entire sectors will be at home. If they did, they'd be supported by the federal opposition, which wants urgent, "draconian" measures, with schools, universities and workplaces closed and mass events cancelled. These NSW figures could frighten people into packing up and going home. But then, no one knows when the wave will come or what the final death rate will be. At a death rate of 0.1 per cent, this would mean 1500 deaths. At the time of writing, NSW has almost 80 cases, but this week its citizens were shocked when the state’s chief medical officer, Dr Kerry Chant, predicted that 1.5 million of them were likely to be infected in the first wave of this virus. Even within each state, closures can be phased in and out, depending where problems occur.Īnd there will be problems. An outbreak in Brisbane shouldn't cause Perth to close down. Third, Australia's unique geography, with concentrations of population separated by wide-open spaces, does not lend itself to total closure. If it can’t achieve this, the death rate will rise, as has happened in Italy. Whatever the government decides to do, its central task is to keep the number of people needing medical help within the country’s capacity to provide this help. A two-week lockdown now may cause a surge that coincides with the flu season and risks overwhelming the healthcare system. Second, Australia has a seasonal concern. China is being watched closely on this score. First, it’s not known yet whether the virus will resurge once restrictions are relaxed.
It would put the brakes on transmission and reduce the viral load in the community.īut there are three issues here. They say although the economic burden would be substantial, the health benefits would be substantial too. This would mean borders being sealed, most institutions and businesses closed, streets empty and people working from home.ĭebate is raging about whether Canberra should introduce an Italian-style lockdown to keep the coronavirus at bay. Some say the country should be put into the equivalent of an induced coma for a couple of weeks to try to keep COVID-19 at bay. With the US having suspended all travel from Europe and with Italy in lockdown, the big question now facing Australia is whether it, too, should take drastic action.